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Photo: SuperAgronom.com
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) anticipates a harvest of grain and oilseed crops in 2026 amounting to 84.6 million tons. This estimate has been revised upwards by 1 million tons from the previous projection, attributed to favorable weather conditions and adequate moisture levels, leading to an improved expected yield for early crops.
The released forecast indicates that with such a harvest, exports in the new 2026/2027 season could potentially reach nearly 52 million tons (last season’s exports stood at 41.1 million tons).
“However, this optimistic scenario is contingent upon Ukraine resolving its logistical challenges, specifically the full restoration of operations at the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa and the cessation of constant Russian bombardments targeting Ukraine’s transport infrastructure and energy facilities, as well as vessels calling at Ukrainian ports,” emphasize UZA experts.
- UZA estimates the 2026 wheat harvest at 23.7 million tons (compared to 22.5 million tons in 2025). Potential wheat exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year could reach 18 million tons (14 million tons last season).
- The 2026 barley harvest is projected by UZA to be 5.5 million tons (4.9 million tons in 2025), with probable exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year expected to be around 2.3 million tons (1.5 million tons last season).
- Expectations for this year’s corn harvest are positive due to currently favorable weather conditions. UZA estimates the corn harvest at 32.1 million tons (31.1 million tons in 2025), and potential exports in the new season could reach 27 million tons, but again, provided unimpeded logistics (21 million tons last season).
- The 2026 sunflower harvest is anticipated to be 13.3 million tons (11.1 million tons in 2025). Traditionally, almost all sunflower will be processed in Ukraine – 13.5 million tons. Exports will not exceed 40 thousand tons.
- In 2026, the rapeseed harvest may reach 3.5 million tons (3.2 million tons in 2025), with exports for the 2025/2026 marketing year potentially amounting to only 1.9 million tons; the remainder will be processed domestically.
- This year’s soybean harvest might total 4.6 million tons (5 million tons in 2025). Potential exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year could be 2.2 million tons (2.7 million tons last season), with the remainder processed in Ukraine, as export is hampered by legislative restrictions, similar to rapeseed.
Alla Husarova, SuperAgronom.com
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